Saturday, 1 October 2011

When the odds were not in my cards or in the pot

Date : 26/9/11

Location : Gala Casino Leicester

Tournament : £10 NLH, 1 rebuy and 1 add on

Situation : Bubble - next prize pays £70

Players : 6

Blinds : 3000/6000 a400

Position : BB

Chips before the hand started : 10,600-


"I post the big blind, 2nd to act calls, Button calls, SB all in for about 20K more. I have 77 ....... after thinking for a while I fold!"-

Thoughts at the time:-

The first thing that happened after I folded was that one of the players who wasn't in the pot berates me for folding stating " you only have 4000 left, you have to call with any 2 cards, you have pot odds"-

That was my initial thought even before I was dealt my cards ... so what changed!-

My thoughts at the time of folding included:-

1. With 2 players to act after me and with my chips added to the pot they will be priced in to call (first to act had approx 50 - 70K in chips and the button had approx 150 - 200K in chips). 77 is not going to perform well in a 4 way pot.-

2. I have sat for over 5 hours and am trying to build a bank roll, there is no cash game to go to, that's it for the night ... any return is better than none.-

3. My chance to win the tournament is not greatly improved, even if I win this pot as I will still only have around 40K with a round of betting costing 11.5K and SB to be posted next.-

4. I think I have a better chance of cashing if one or both of the other players still to act calls the all in and knocks him out than I have playing my hand.-

Post Tournaments Analysis:-

Before I give the outcome of the hand, I have taken a look at my "all in" odds for 77 in this situation given the hands I thought I may be up against (using PokerStove).-

Caller 1 : small pockets and TJ-KQ (15%)-

Caller 2 : AT - A2 and suited/off suit connectors (17%)-

AI Raiser : JJ+ (50%)-

Me : 77 (16%)-

2% a hand tie.-

In fact I only really gave thought to the first two in the pot as to whether they would be likely to call or not, because my main concern was the ALL IN from a tight player in a position where he could let me take on 2 opponents to get him in the money.-

I thought that at least one of the players still to act behind me would call on the hand ranges I had given them at least 50% of the time, better odds than I was likely to be facing if I went all in.

I also figured that if one or both did call then there was at least a 30% that they could win the hand, better than the odds I had heads up.-

Anyway I delayed and tried to get a read as to whether there would be a caller behind and my gut told me there would be so I folded.-

Caller 1 folded and caller 2 debated, asked the ALL IN if he wanted a call ... the answer was yes ... and he called.-

AI shows 99 and Caller 2 Shows ATos.-

An ace and a ten on the flop seal the hand for him and for me to cash in 5th place at the expense of someone else's misfortune.-

I know it is debatable as to whether I should have folded because if the AI hand had held up then I would have been all in next hand anyway. However I was clear before I folded why I was doing it; I was resigned that the tournament was over for me and I wanted to give myself the best chance at cashing. -

I would appreciate any thoughts!-

If this was a 10K buy in event that I had qualified for online and this had happened ... I would be ecstatic with the outcome.-

Anyway my live poker bank roll now sits at £340'ish pounds and stays strong for a few more buy ins to try and hit a bigger cash.-

Until next time-

Keep it Tight!

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