Saturday, 10 April 2010

Grand National Day


Yes today is one of the racing highlights, if not the racing highlight of the year. It is also one of the days where I have a pure gamble (no betting in running today ... so expect a loss). I will be doing it old style, off to the bookies and then watch the race in the pub!
I thought this time I would put my picks down before the race, then when I win my millions you won't all think I've been making it up.
Nothing new strategy wise this year, I have still used my usual philosophy:
If the horse hasn't run 30 furlongs or more ... scrap it.
If the horse has been pulled up in its last 5 outings ... scrap it.
This has left me the following 9 runners:
1. Tricky Trickster
2. Big Fella Thanks
3. Niche Market
4. Irish Raptor
5. Arbour Supreme
6. Hello Bud
7. Joe Lively
8. Comply or Die
9. King Johns Castle
So I have chosen what I think is the best of the above an have decided to dutch the following each way to the following amounts:
1. Tricky Trickster £3 ew
2. Big Fella Thanks £4.50 ew
3. Niche Market £3 ew
4. Irish Raptor £1.50 ew
So any placed horse will show a small profit.
Any two placed horses or more and it will be my round next!
I also have a real gut feeling about Joe Lively - which is likely to go off at around 66-1. So not ignoring this feeling I will be wagering £5 win and £2.5 ew.
Good Luck All
Until Next Time
Keep it Tight!

Saturday, 3 April 2010

I know I said I don't like rebuys .... but ....


I have been playing mostly cash games recently with very little success.
So last night I was sitting watching TV and had the need to play a multi tourney.

I scanned UB to see what was available and found that the $4K guaranteed rebuy had just started and was accepting late registration. With only 192 players registered at this point I threw my $3.30 into the pot and was prepared for the usual all in fest that was likely to ensue. However I was mildly surprised to find that the play was a little more solid than I was expecting. After the 60 minute rebuy period I had just used my initial buy in and my double add on to get me to around average chip stack (for a total buy in of $9.30).

During the late registration period the field had expanded to 419 players but was already reduced to about 320 remaining players. Now I like my chances with a reasonable stack compared to the blinds and a 300 or so player tournament that is now a freezeout with over a $4K prize fund.

Anyway I just played my usual game in between watching TV and surfing ebay and watched as the other players went to war .

With about 100 or so players to go and prizes paying to 45th I was sitting firmly in the bottom two players and was looking for a double up.

In a short stack situation I never panic knowing that a double up will take me only one more double away from the average stack. I use an "If you wait they will come" approach.

As if on cue whilst in the BB and with the pot folded to the aggressive big stack on the button he does his usual raise and I all in with my AKos. He calls and I double up number 1.

Well I don't know how many times I did this (it must have been 3 or 4) but I managed to nurse my short stack to the final table ... from 100 out.

Hitting the Final Table

Do not let anyone tell you patience doesn't pay off.

I feel I played really solid to the final table and then let myself down with a badly played 77 with 9 players still left.

In mid position I raised 3x and got called by the BB. The flop dropped QTT. The BB checked and I bet 3/4 pot. The BB re raised me all in. Damn ... why didn't I check and let him try and extract chips if he has the monster, who knows my 7 may have come on the turn.

So now I was the very short stack again with just over $50K in chips.

Once again "If you wait they will come."

Once again a few carefully chosen all ins and all in calls and I unluckily went out 6th with my AK losing out to the big stacks AT. A win in this pot would have seen me with about $250K in chips and aiming four 4th place at worst.

I feel a little unlucky going out with the hand I did, but still $207 added to my poker fund.

Has this rekindled my love for rebuys?

Only if they are not all in fests as I would expect them to be.

Until next time.

Keep it tight!