Wednesday 5 December 2012

Is poker getting harder?

 
"Is poker getting harder?"

This is an interesting question that was posed on this months Poker Player magazine letters page. However I do not think this simple question has a simple answer. In fact I think the question in itself is a little misleading because it somehow suggests that the skill levels involved in the modern game are higher which is making it harder.

I think to answer this question you first need to identify by what measures you will use to assess the skill levels of the players involved.

Well the obvious measure that comes to mind is the ability to consistently make a profit!

This in itself though is not a true measure of a players skill because we know that some players can make consistent profits at the low buy in levels but not at the higher ones. And then there are the players that are not comfortable playing the higher levels despite having the bank roll and skill. Furthermore what levels of profit do we accept as the benchmark? Which game and format are we comparing? Well suddenly the waters have become very muddy.

So in thinking this through a bit further perhaps a fairer question would be:

"Is it getting harder to make a consistent profit at poker within the game type and level you play at?".

Now when you put the question like this I think the answer is definitely yes! It certainly is for me which is showing up as a reduction in profits. However I don't believe this is because the skill levels have gotten higher or the game has gotten harder!

Let me explain ....

The online game has changed massively since I started over 10 years ago. A 3bet generally meant an opponent would fold and a 4bet meant you had forgotten where the All In button was. These moves are now common place in the SnG's I play as pre flop actions and there is still some expectation of post flop play.

But does this mean the game is more skillful?

Well I don't believe it does!

Lets take a very basic look at these plays in an online SnG.

Firstly I normally see these moves when the blinds are small; traditionally a part of the game that you were supposed to only be able to lose the SnG but not win it. Later in the game the blinds are so big a 3rd bet generally means all in.

Secondly I don't believe anyone has a true idea where they stand in a hand on the flop after they have had their 4 bet called! Whats more the flop play from here is sometimes astonishing, usually down to the fact that the players have invested so many chips already!

Thirdly after this kind of action, if the 4bet is all in, it is likely to be called by a lesser hand because the pot is so large in comparison to the players remaining chips.

So I am seeing many more light calls against my AA, KK, QQ and AK that would traditionally have been folded pre or post flop. So what is more skillful? Folding in a 20% win spot having invested a little or getting it All In light in the hope you will hit your few outs when you have made a bad read?

I know these moves are meant to get people to fold - but they generally don't anymore.

I therefore put my reduction in profit down to the times I lose with my premium hands being called pre and post flop by hands that normally would have resulted in a pre or post flop fold.

Is poker getting harder?

No, in my opinion it is getting more gambly!

Until next time.

Keep it tight!

 

Wednesday 21 November 2012

A new blog direction

Well I know it has been a while since my last blog entry but I really haven't had a lot in my poker life to blog about.

So in an inspirational moment I decided it might be good to blog on the back of the things I read in the Poker Player magazine. I am a full subscriber and inevitably end up reading the articles whilst having an internal discussion with myself about the validity of the information based on my experience. This internal discussion is what I am going to use to prompt some posts!

I first want to make it clear however this is not an exercise of pulling apart the magazine and saying "I think I know better". It is a great publication that prompts discussions like this within me and that has to be a good thing! Nor is it meant to replace the articles, in fact if you haven't read them I suggest you get a copy and take the time to read them for yourselves. This (and future) blog posts are merely meant to give my slant on what I read, how it affects me, perhaps fill in a few of the gaps and who knows some of the helpful tips might actually sink into my brain.

The article for this post that got my creative juices flowing was entitled "6 Steps to Winning Big Money" in the November 12 issue where the article sets out to take the reader from $0 to $1,000 + in six ways. The part in particular getting my attention was taking a balance from $0 - $100.

I found this quite relevant because at the moment I have built a bankroll from $0 this year and it is currently sitting at approx $450.

Starting from a $0 bank roll is an interesting challenge and it should be remembered that it takes a lot of hard work, patience and dedication to achieve it (which are all valuable lessons to be learnt for a poker player). The level of play is easier at the lower stakes but remember that poker is poker. It can take months to grow from $0 to $100 never mind $1000+ (for me it took 4 months to break the $100 barrier and stay above it).

The article suggests sticking to the micro cash games (mainly to play a lot of hands) but my views differ. I think a balanced approach to building a bank roll is much better and would suggest the following tips:

1. Identify your winning game

There are many variations of poker that exist on-line - cash games, SnGs, Multi tournaments, speed, turbo, Omaha, holdem, knockout, timed tournaments, heads up, 6 player, 10player; in fact the list is almost becoming endless. All of the types of poker available have different skill sets required but most importantly have a varying level of win expectation inherent within the game. It is important to experiment with the different types of poker but initially I suggest choosing a game with a low variance level such as Double Up Sit and Gos - your profits will not rise quickly but they do allow you to protect a bank roll in the initial stages of bank roll building.

2. Identify the best site for you

Different sites offer different game selections but also have a different level of player. Sign up to a few sites and stick with the one that gives you a regular profit.

3. Keep detailed records

The above two points are very important but in identifying them you need to keep a detailed spreadsheet showing the following - buy in, game type, site, number of players, pay structure of selected game etc. You can then filter the data to identify your winning game selection.

4. Bonuses

If you are going to make a deposit to get yourself going choose a site that gives you a bonus; but be sensible with it. If $200 bonus is on offer but you are going to be playing $1 SnGs then you are not going to clear the whole amount - buy in for an achievable amount, say $5. Clear it, cash out then move to the next site offering a bonus.

5. Freerolls

Don't be afraid of stooping down to play freeroll tournaments (some sites even offer freeroll SnGs). The rewards are relatively small but when you win remember it is 100% ROI. Some sites will offer depositor freerolls that have a slightly higher prize fund and if you ensure you register your email address with particular sites you will get special tournaments with free tickets sent to you! Whats more if you follow poker sites on-line with social networks there are free tournaments with passwords posted there.


So there are a few brief tips that do not relate to game play but in my opinion are just as important to help make a winning player! I hope it might help someone build from $0.


Until next time

Keep it Tight!





Wednesday 25 July 2012

Enjoyment of poker returning? ... Oh and a few stats!

Is the joy of online poker returning for me?

Well it is hard to tell but I have been playing online poker a little more recently and I have been enjoying it.

It is still only at small stakes and it could just be due to the circumstance of me being in France, revelling in the sunshine by day and then having time to get involved with a bit of poker by night.

It may also be to do with the fact that I have renewed my aquaintance with Titan Poker.

I finally feel I am getting value from an online poker room (although there rake is a little high on some of the low stakes SnGs). They offer cash back for points, bonus tokens and invite tourneys ... and they even respond to your tweets. All in all their package seems to have improved greatly from when I used to play there over 2 years ago.

Perhaps it also helps because I have been winning a little recently and my "bankroll from zero" has been growing (which is also due to the fact that I have been doing well in the freeroll tournaments offered).

The graph below shows my progress from the beginning of the year on my "bankroll from zero" challenge.



The peak at 645 buy ins is where I have accounted for a tournament qualifying token that was added to my records and then taken back out again when played with no return.


So my balance of $180 dollars is made up from 855 individual buy ins on the following 3 different game formats:

Multi Table Tourneys

39 buy ins               $70.65
16 cashs (1FT)        $118.54
ROI                         67.9%   (thanks to 18 freerolls of which 11 were cashes with the final table)

Cash Games

Total Buy Ins         $412
Total Returns         $434.11
ROI                        5.37%

Sit and Goes

Total Buy Ins         $824.72
Total Returns         $865.67
ROI                        4.97%

"And this is where good record keeping and writing this blog instantly helps - I now know that I have been spending more time and buy ins on my least profitable format!"

So at a $180 bank roll going forwards I am able to now sit with a total buy in of $9 on any one game.

I will keep going with this because it is giving me the chance to at least enjoy some poker and enjoy the sensation of being a winning player, which is a small comfort.

So with the hope my new found love for the game continues and that my bankroll continues to grow I will sign off .... so ....

Until next time

Keep it Tight!

Thursday 28 June 2012

Uninspired & uninterested = unsuccessful


I haven't blogged for a while because I have nothing to blog about! I just can't get into my poker right now!

I am still playing on line regularly but not with any conviction. I have no challenge, no drive and no notable success.

Perhaps its just life! I am more interested at the moment on living rather than sitting in front of my pc screen to make a few (and I mean a few) quid.

I need to set some goals ... need a challenge ... and most of all I need to set aside some time.

Perhaps I will join the 2+2 forum and see if I can find some inspiration there.

With regards to my online poker results I am still holding my balance from nothing at $134 and slowly improving.

My live poker balance sits at £361 but I haven't played live in about 2 months.

So until next time ... when hopefully I will have re found my Mojo!

Keep it Tight!

Thursday 22 March 2012

Now I don't generally go with conspiracies ...

I am in a world of on line poker pain and confusion ....
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I go through times of really wanting to play on line ... and then I sit down to play and all of the passion just leaves me!
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It can take just one "On Line" hand for me to lose all confidence in it again.
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Tonight it was holding TT against AJ pre flop ... and the board runs 45678 to split the pot ... ( I switch off) ... makes a change to the A on the river I suppose.
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At the weekend it was running deep in a tourney until that guy hits his 2 outer to knock my short stack out for a min cash ... (I switch off) ... it happens oh so (too) regularly!
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Now I don't generally go with conspiracies ...
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In my (approx) 10 years of online poker I have played thousands of games, nay, hundreds of thousands on over 30 different poker sites. In that time I have seen massively varying results from my style of play on different sites, so much so that there is one particular network I will not play on because I cannot turn a profit ...! Is it coincidence that most of the brands using that network consistently offer the best bonuses?
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How can my results on this network be SO consistently poor?
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Can it really be that all of the tens of thousands of players across all of the different providers on that network have a different style of game that beats mine?
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I often hear "its because you play so many hands that you only remember the bad results" or "its variance". Well I have played hundreds of Double up SnGs month after month in the past and the spots in which I get my chips in (or not) are very similar ... I know the expectation for my play.
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So is this sour grapes from a bad run of form?
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I don't think so ... In fact I don't think I have had a losing year besides my first year of playing.
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My graph below shows the first two months results on my Zero to What? challenge brought on by my lack of confidence in on line poker.
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So why this sudden change of heart?
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Well to be honest I have always thought that on line play is a bit different to a real pack of shuffled cards, I have just tried to repeat the multitude of different mantras supporting it ...
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... "What would the poker sites gain from fixing?"
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... "You are just having a bad run"
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... "Just because you are ahead it doesn't mean you will win the hand"
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... and of course I wouldn't want to be subject to the bad press you receive from even suggesting that On Line Poker might not be right.
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But would I really be out of line for suggesting that? Am I really out of order for thinking that the operators of poker sites could be so unscrupulous as to take a bit more juice from their customers? I think recent events in the On Line poker world have answered that!
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But what has really got me going is that I am convinced that the graph above has not been achieved by good poker play ...
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Now I am not on a crusade to try and put people off on line poker and it is not as a fight back to any particular site. I also know there are people out there who have played far more on line than I have and are happy with the results.
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However whilst I am thinking like this I can't put in a stake of value on line, regardless of the prize ...
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Am I talking rubbish? ... that is for you to decide!
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Until Next Time
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Keep it Tight!

Thursday 26 January 2012

Losing Love for the Game?

I don't know what it is recently but I can't seem to get myself up to play online poker:
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Is it all the downs personal life dealt me last year that got me out of the habit of playing?
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Am I just tired of players holding onto J5 on a J high flop until they hit their set on the river to beat my AA?
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Have the bonuses dried up that used to turn me from a marginal winning player to a quite profitable player?
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Whatever it is Online Poker is just not the same as it was to me over a year ago.
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Is OnLine Poker in Trouble?
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Daniel Negranaeu, in Poker Player Magazine, spoke about poker being in trouble because there are no real characters coming through the new game.
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I think it is in trouble for different reason - a high percentage of players are now better!
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Heres my theory:
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When a player is far better than their opponents the skill difference is very apparent and the effect of this skills gulf is mostly measurable (probably solely) on their results. Luck does still play a part but overall the difference in skill will win out in the end.
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When players' skill levels are more evenly matched the skill level plays less of a role in results and the winning player is more likely going to be the one who is luckiest. To me this doesn't matter if it is equal skill at a low level or at the highest level. At whatever level it becomes more difficult to measure your success because you can't (or don't want to) measure the amount of good or bad luck you have.
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My second point here is where I think online poker is at now. At all levels players appear to have a good grasp of the basics of the game and in most cases are educated to the more advanced plays.
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How it used to be:
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Of course the player holding onto his J5 in my opening to this post is exactly what you want to have happen, but these players are fewer and far between (perhaps one to a table). When there used to be 4 or 5 of these to a table you were likely to get those chips back 3-4 times faster than is likely today.
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Consequently you reward to time ratio is watered down and your overall ROI is reduced ... and thats just to the few players you are better than!
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Add to this mix the fact that tracker software has levelled the playing field even further and it becomes very difficult to make a meaningful profit.
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This is probably the real reason why I have lost the drive for online poker.
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So what are my plans for online poker?
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Well I think it is going to become mainly recreational whilst I continue to try and make something happen at the live game. I am not going to sit and grind for hours and hours, I am not going to attemp to hit the leaderboards, I am going to play when I feel like it.
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So, unless something in my Psyche changes, I am going to try and play the bankroll build game until the end of the year.
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I am starting at the lowest SnG, cash and multi tourney buy in levels ...
I am starting my records from $0 dollar ....
I will play freerolls and bonus tournaments ...
and I will see how much I have won or lost by christmas.
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When my balance is at at appropriate levels I will be using the following rules for buy ins:
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5% of bankroll for SnG
2% of bank roll for cash games
1 % of bank roll for Multi Tournaments
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Any profit I have at the end of December will then be spent on live poker for 2013.
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If I lose on the year it could well be spelling the end of my online poker exploits.
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So until my next update
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Keep it Tight!